There is an 80% chance that global temperatures will break at least one annual heat record in the next five years, raising the risk of extreme droughts, floods and forest fires, a new report by the World Meteorological organization (WMO) has shown.
世界气象组织(WMO)的一份新报告显示，未来五年，全球气温有80%的可能性将打破至少一项年度高温记录，从而增加极端干旱、洪水和森林火灾的风险。
For the first time, the data also indicated a small likelihood that before 2030, the world could experience a year that is 2C hotter than the preindustrial era, a possibility scientists described as "shocking".
数据还首次表明，在2030年之前，世界可能会经历一年比工业化前时代热2摄氏度的可能性很小，科学家们称这种可能性“令人震惊”。
Coming after the hottest 10 years ever measured, the latest medium-term global climate update highlights the growing threat to human health, national economies and natural landscapes unless people stop burning oil, gas, coal and trees.
此前十年是有记录以来最热的十年，而此次最新中期全球气候更新报告强调， 除非人们不使用石油、天然气、煤炭，停止砍伐树木，否则人类健康、国家经济和自然景观将面临日益严峻的威胁。
The update, which synthesises short-term weather observations and long-term climate projections, said there was a 70% chance that five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5C above preindustrial levels.
该报告综合了短期天气观测和长期气候预测数据， 指出在2025-2029年五年间平均气温上升幅度有70%的可能性，比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度。
This would put the world perilously close to breaking the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement, an international climate change treaty, though that goal is based on an average over 20 years.
这几乎要突破《巴黎协定》，这一国际气候变化条约所设定的最远大的目标， 尽管这一目标是以20年为平均周期来设定的。
It also reported an 86% likelihood that 1.5C would be passed in at least one of the next five years, up from 40% in the 2020 report.
报告还指出，未来五年内至少有一年气温会超过1.5摄氏度的可能性为86%，较2020年报告中的40%有所上升。
In 2024, the 1.5C threshold was breached on an annual basis for the first time – an outcome that was considered implausible in any of the five-year predictions before 2014. Last year was the hottest in the 175-year observational record.
2024年，全球年平均气温首次突破了1.5摄氏度的阈值，这一结果在2014年之前的任何五年预测中都被认为是不可能的。 去年是有175年观测记录以来最热的一年。
Underscoring how rapidly the world is warming, even 2C is now appearing as a statistical possibility in the latest update, which is compiled by 220 ensemble members from models contributed by 15 different institutes, including the UK's Met Office, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, and Deutscher Wetterdienst.
最新报告凸显了全球变暖速度之快，如今2摄氏度的升温幅度在报告中已成为一种统计上的可能性， 由包括英国气象局、巴塞罗那超级计算中心、加拿大气候建模与分析中心以及德国气象局在内的15个不同机构提供的模型中的220个集合成员编制而成，
The likelihood of 2C before 2030 is tiny – about 1% – and would require a convergence of multiple warming factors, such as a strong El Niño and positive Arctic Oscillation, but it was previously considered impossible in a five-year timeframe.
2030年前全球气温上升2摄氏度的可能性很小，约为1%，且需要多个升温因素同时出现， 如强厄尔尼诺现象和北极振荡呈正位相，但此前人们认为这在五年内是不可能发生的。
"It is shocking that 2C is plausible," said Adam Scaife of the Met Office, which played a leading role in compiling the data. "It has come out as only 1% in the next five years but the probability will increase as the climate warms."
“令人震惊的是，气温上升2摄氏度已成为可能，”参与数据编制工作的英国气象局亚当·斯卡夫表示， “未来五年内这一概率仅为1%，但随着气候变暖，这一概率将会增加。”
The impacts will not fall equally. Arctic winters are predicted to warm 3.5 times faster than the global average, partly because sea ice is melting, which means snow falls directly into the ocean rather than forming a layer on the surface to reflect the sun's heat back into space. The Amazon rainforest is predicted to suffer more droughts while south Asia, the Sahel and northern Europe, including the UK, will see more rain.
气候变暖的影响不会均匀分布。 据预测，北极冬季的变暖速度将是全球平均水平的3.5倍，部分原因是海冰融化， 导致雪直接落入海洋，而不是在表面形成一层反射太阳热量的雪层。 亚马逊雨林预计将遭受更多干旱，而南亚、萨赫勒地区和包括英国在内的北欧将出现更多降雨。
The Met Office's Leon Hermanson, who led the production of the report, said 2025 is likely to be one of the three warmest years on record.
负责编制该报告的英国气象局利昂·赫曼森表示，2025年很可能是有记录以来最热的三年之一。
Chris Hewitt, director of climate services at the WMO, described a "worrying picture" for heatwaves and human health. However, he said it was still not too late to limit warming if fossil fuel emissions are cut.
世界气象组织气候服务主任克里斯·休伊特描述了高温热浪和人类健康面临的“严峻形势”。 然而，他表示，如果减少化石燃料排放，现在限制气温上升还为时不晚。
"We must take climate action," he said. "1.5C is not inevitable."
他说：“我们必须采取气候行动。”。“1.5摄氏度并非不可避免。”
重点词汇
There is 有
at least 不少于，至少，起码 ; 至少 ; 至少，起码
five years 五年
forest fires 森林火灾 ; 森林大火 ; 林火
World Meteorological Organization 世界气象组织
For the first time 第一次 ; 首次 ; 在第一时间 ; 从第一次开始 ; 对于第一次
described as 描述为 ; 说成是
global climate 全球气候
human health 人类健康 ; 人体健康 ; 人类的健康 ; 人类健康部门
burning oil 燃烧的油 ; 〈口语〉煤油
