《经济学人》近期关注的核心议题之一是发达国家面临的“通胀还是衰退”两难困境，这一问题在2026年春季因中东地缘冲突、能源价格飙升及高企的公共债务而进一步加剧。结合当前(2026年4月13日)最新公开资料，债券市场正经历一场典型的“滞胀拉锯战”：通胀预期推高收益率，而衰退担忧又压低收益率，导致市场剧烈波动。下面请看相关双语报道。
The yield on ten-year American Treasury bonds is perhaps the world's most important number, and for weeks it has been all over the place. Hundredths of a percentage point (basis points, in finance speak) matter in this market, because the Treasury's borrowing costs underpin those for everything from mortgages to corporate bonds. It stood below 4% on February 27th, the eve of the American-Israeli war on Iran, jumped above 4.4% by March 27th and has since dropped back down. For many Americans, the difference between 4% and 4.4% is that between being able to afford a new house and not.
** 十年期美国国债收益率或许是全球最为关键的经济指标，数周以来该指标剧烈波动。** 在这一市场中，百分之一个百分点(金融术语称为 “基点”)变动都至关重要，因为美国财政部的融资成本是抵押贷款、企业债券等各类融资成本的定价基准。**2 月 27 日，即美以对伊朗开战前夕，该收益率尚低于 4%;到 3 月 27 日已跃升至 4.4% 以上，随后又有所回落。** 对许多美国人而言，4% 与 4.4% 的差别，直接决定能否负担得起新房。
It is not just America: governments' borrowing costs are in flux almost everywhere. At one point on March 23rd Britain's ten-year yield topped 5.1%, its highest since 2008. Germany's has hit 3.1%, higher than at any point since the euro zone's sovereign-debt crisis. Japan's has reached 2.4% for the first time since 1997. All saw bond yields soar in the wake of the Iran war, then fall back over the past few days.
不仅美国如此，全球几乎所有国家的政府融资成本都处于剧烈波动中。3 月 23 日，英国十年期国债收益率一度突破 5.1%，创 2008 年以来新高;德国十年期国债收益率触及 3.1%，为欧元区主权债务危机以来最高水平;日本十年期国债收益率升至 2.4%，为 1997 年以来首次。伊朗战争爆发后，各国债券收益率均大幅飙升，过去几日则有所回落。
What is going on? Hopeful observers might conclude that borrowing costs have dropped recently because hostilities in the Middle East will soon be over, allowing oil to flow freely through the Strait of Hormuz. After all, the fall in yields has come as Donald Trump, America's president, has seemed increasingly desperate to end the war, alternately threatening to "obliterate" Iranian infrastructure and touting success in peace talks. With Mr Trump searching for an off-ramp, the odds of lower energy costs and less strain on government budgets—both of which should pull bond yields down—might be improving.
当前局面缘何而起?乐观观察人士或许认为，近期融资成本回落是因为中东战事即将结束，石油可经霍尔木兹海峡自由流通。毕竟，收益率回落之际，美国总统特朗普愈发急于结束战争，时而威胁 “彻底摧毁” 伊朗基础设施，时而吹嘘和平谈判取得进展。随着特朗普寻求停火路径，能源成本下行、政府预算压力缓解的可能性正不断上升 ——两者均会拉低债券收益率。
Life's optimists, however, generally do not pursue careers in bond investing. The whole job involves considering just how gloomy things might get. In the case of the Iran war, this means fretting about the twin-headed monster of stagflation: economic stagnation combined with high inflation. Borrowing costs are whipsawing because these two dangers tug them in opposite directions.
然而，乐观主义者通常不会投身债券投资。这一行业的核心，便是预判最坏局面。就伊朗战争而言，这意味着担忧滞胀这一双头怪兽 —— 经济停滞叠加高通胀。融资成本剧烈震荡，正是因为这两大风险从相反方向拉扯收益率。
When bondholders think inflation will flare, they demand higher yields both as compensation for the erosion of their principal's purchasing power, and because they expect central bankers to raise rates to cool prices. When they think growth is stalling, they accept lower yields because a more sluggish economy reduces demand for their capital, and because monetary policy is likely to be loosened to help reheat the economy.
当债券持有人预期通胀升温时，会要求更高收益率 —— 既补偿本金购买力缩水，也因预计央行将加息抑制物价。当他们判断增长停滞时，则接受更低收益率 ——经济低迷会降低资本需求，且央行大概率宽松以提振经济。
Broadly, the governments whose borrowing costs have jumped highest are those most exposed to inflationary pressure from the closure of Hormuz. The OECD produces regular forecasts of growth and inflation for its members, most of which are well-heeled countries. Comparing the last two sets, published in December and March, gives a picture of how their prospects have been changed by the Iran war.
总体而言，融资成本飙升最剧烈的国家，正是受霍尔木兹海峡关闭引发通胀冲击最严重的经济体。经合组织(OECD)定期发布成员国增长与通胀预测(成员国多为富裕国家)。对比去年 12 月与今年 3 月的最新两期预测，可清晰看到伊朗战争如何改变各国经济前景。
The OECD raised Britain's inflation forecast by the most, pencilling in a cumulative change of two percentage points over 2026 and 2027. The yield on ten-year gilts has, accordingly, risen by over 0.4 percentage points since the start of the year—more than any other large, rich democracy in the G7. (India, not yet in that select club but also an energy importer, has seen similar jumps in both its inflation forecasts and borrowing costs.) In Canada, for which the OECD has raised its inflation projection by only 0.3 percentage points, ten-year yields have barely budged.
经合组织对英国通胀预测上调幅度最大 ——2026—2027 年累计上调 2 个百分点。相应地，年初至今英国十年期金边债券收益率已上行超 0.4 个百分点，在七国集团(G7)大型发达经济体中升幅居首。(尚未加入 G7 的印度同为能源进口国，通胀预测与融资成本也出现类似飙升。)经合组织仅将加拿大通胀预测上调 0.3 个百分点，其十年期收益率几乎未变。
By comparison, the changes to the OECD's growth forecasts have been mild. But they were published on March 26th, and since then bondholders' natural pessimism has set in. Early in the war traders bet that the Federal Reserve would stop cutting rates and might even raise them, to contain the inflationary effects of the energy shock. Now they are pricing in an increasing probability of cuts once again.
相比之下，经合组织对增长预测的调整较为温和。但该预测于 3 月 26 日发布，此后债券持有人的天生悲观情绪开始主导市场。战争初期，交易员押注美联储将暂停降息、甚至加息，以遏制能源冲击引发的通胀;如今则重新计入更高的降息概率。
To be fair, theory suggests that central bankers should "look through" price rises caused by supply-side shocks such as the current energy crisis. After all, tightening monetary policy does nothing to fix supply shortages. Slashing rates during even a brief inflationary surge, however, might exacerbate it—a risk worth taking only if the economy urgently needs support.
** 公平而言，理论上央行应 “忽略” 供给侧冲击(如当前能源危机)引发的物价上涨。毕竟，收紧货币政策无法解决供应短缺问题。** 但即便在短暂通胀飙升期大幅降息，也可能加剧通胀 —— 唯有经济亟需提振时，才值得冒此风险。
The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, the worse such worries will get. The OECD's projections were based on the assumption that energy shortages will begin easing within weeks, and that disruption in 2027 will be "limited". It reckons a longer closure could subtract 0.5% from global GDP next year, while adding 0.9 percentage points to inflation. If that comes to pass, bond traders will be in two minds for a while yet.
** 霍尔木兹海峡关闭时间越长，此类担忧越重。** 经合组织预测基于以下假设：** 能源短缺将在数周内缓解，2027 年的供应扰动将 “有限”。** 该组织估计，若海峡长期关闭，** 明年全球 GDP 或萎缩 0.5%，通胀则上行 0.9 个百分点。** 若成真，债券交易员将在相当长时期内陷入两难。
重点词汇
ten-year Treasury bonds / yields：十年期国债 / 收益率
basis points (bps) 基点(1 个基点 = 0.01 个百分点，债市核心计量单位)
borrowing costs / funding costs 融资成本
mortgages 抵押贷款
corporate bonds 企业债券
gilts 金边债券
sovereign-debt crisis 主权债务危机
