The Price of Oil and the Price of Carbon
A) Fossil fuel prices are likely to stay "low for long". Notwithstanding important recent progress in developing renewable fuel sources, low fossil fuel prices could discourage further innovation in, and adoption of, cleaner energy technologies. The result would be higher emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
B) Policymakers should not allow low energy prices to derail the clean energy transition. Action to restore appropriate price incentives, notably through corrective carbon pricing, is urgently needed to lower the risk of irreversible and potentially devastating effects of climate change. that approach also offers fiscal benefits.
C) Oil prices have dropped by over 60% since June 2014. A commonly held view in the oil industry is that "the best cure for low oil prices is low oil prices". The reasoning behind this saying is that low oil prices discourage investment in new production capacity, eventually shifting the oil supply curve backward and bringing prices back up as existing oil fields—which can be tapped at relatively low marginal cost—are depleted. In fact, in line with past experience, capital expenditure in the oil sector has dropped sharply in many producing countries, including the United States. The dynamic adjustment to low oil prices may, however, be different this time around.
D) Oil prices are expected to remain lower for longer. The advent of new technologies has added about 4.2 million barrels per day to the crude oil market, contributing to a global over-supply. In addition, other factors are putting downward pressure on oil prices: change in the strategic behavior of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the projected increase in Iranian exports, the scaling-down of global demand (especially from emerging markets), the long-term drop in petroleum consumption in the United States, and some displacement of oil by substitutes. These likely persistent forces, like the growth of shale (页岩) oil, point to a "low for long" scenario. Futures markets, which show only a modest recovery of prices to around $60 a barrel by 2019, support this view.
E) Natural gas and coal—also fossil fuels—have similarly seen price declines that look to be long-lived. Coal and natural gas are mainly used for electricity generation, whereas oil is used mostly to power transportation, yet the prices of all these energy sources are linked. The North American shale gas boom has resulted in record low prices there. The recent discovery of the giant Zohr gas field off the Egyptian coast will eventually have impact on pricing in the Mediterranean region and Europe, and there is significant development potential in many other places, notably Argentina. Coal prices also are low, owing to over-supply and the scaling-down of demand, especially from China, which bums half of the world's coal.
F) Technological innovations have unleashed the power of renewables such as wind, hydro, solar, and geothermal (地热). Even Africa and the Middle East, home to economies that are heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports, have enormous potential to develop renewables. For example, the United Arab Emirates has endorsed an ambitious target to draw 24% of its primary energy consumption from renewable sources by 2021.
G) Progress in the development of renewables could be fragile, however, if fossil fuel prices remain low for long. Renewables account for only a small share of global primary energy consumption, which is still dominated by fossil fuels—30% each for coal and oil, 25% for natural gas. But renewable energy will have to displace fossil fuels to a much greater extent in the future to avoid unacceptable climate risks.
H) Unfortunately, the current low prices for oil, gas, and coal may provide little incentive for research to find even cheaper substitutes for those fuels. There is strong evidence that both innovation and adoption of cleaner technology are strongly encouraged by higher fossil fuel prices. The same is true for new technologies for alleviating fossil fuel emissions.
I) The current low fossil fuel price environment will thus certainly delay the energy transition from fossil fuel to clean energy sources. Unless renewables become cheap enough that substantial carbon deposits are left underground for a very long time, if not forever, the planet will likely be exposed to potentially catastrophic climate risks.
J) Some climate impacts may already be discernible. For example, the United Nations Children's Fund estimates that some 11 million children in Africa face hunger, disease, and water shortages as a result of the strongest El Nino (厄尔尼诺) weather phenomenon in decades. Many scientists believe that El Nino events, caused by warming in the Pacific, are becoming more intense as a result of climate change.
K) Nations from around the world have gathered in Paris for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP 21, with the goal of a universal and potentially legally-binding agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We need very broad participation to fully address the global tragedy that results when countries fail to take into account the negative impact of their carbon emissions on the rest of the world. Moreover, non-participation by nations, if sufficiently widespread, can undermine the political will of participating countries to act.
L) The nations participating at COP 21 are focusing on quantitative emissions-reduction commitments. economic reasoning shows that the least expensive way for each country is to put a price on carbon emissions. The reason is that when carbon is priced, those emissions reductions that are least costly to implement will happen first. The International Monetary Fund calculates that countries can generate substantial fiscal revenues by eliminating fossil fuel subsidies and levying carbon charges that capture the domestic damage caused by emissions. A tax on upstream carbon sources is one easy way to put a price on carbon emissions, although some countries may wish to use other methods, such as emissions trading schemes. In order to maximize global welfare, every country's carbon pricing should reflect not only the purely domestic damage from emissions, but also the damage to foreign countries.
M) Setting the right carbon price will therefore efficiently align the costs paid by carbon users with the true social opportunity cost of using carbon. By raising relative demand for clean energy sources, a carbon price would also help align the market return to clean-energy innovation with its social return, spurring the refinement of existing technologies and the development of new ones. And it would raise the demand for technologies such as carbon capture and storage, spurring their further development. If not corrected by the appropriate carbon price, low fossil fuel prices are not accurately signaling to markets the true social profitability of clean energy. While alternative estimates of the damage from carbon emissions differ, and it's especially hard to reckon the likely costs of possible catastrophic climate events, most estimates suggest substantial negative effects.
N) direct subsidies to research and development have been adopted by some governments but are a poor substitute for a carbon price: they do only part of the job, leaving in place market incentives to over-use fossil fuels and thereby add to the stock of atmospheric greenhouse gases without regard to the collateral (附带的) costs.
O) The hope is that the success of COP 21 opens the door to future international agreement on carbon prices. Agreement on an international carbon-price floor would be a good starting point in that process. failure to address comprehensively the problem of greenhouse gas emissions, however, exposes all generations, present and future, to incalculable risks.
36. A number of factors are driving down the global oil prices not just for now but in the foreseeable future.
37. Pricing carbon proves the most economical way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
38. It is estimated that extreme weather conditions have endangered the lives of millions of African children.
39. The prices of coal are low as a result of over-supply and decreasing demand.
40. Higher fossil fuel prices prove to be conducive to innovation and application of cleaner technology.
41. If fossil fuel prices remain low for a long time, it may lead to higher emissions of greenhouse gases.
42. Fossil fuels remain the major source of primary energy consumption in today's world.
43. Even major fossil exporting countries have great potential to develop renewable energies.
44. Greenhouse gas emissions, if not properly dealt with, will pose endless risks for mankind.
45. It is urgent for governments to increase the cost of using fossil fuels to an appropriate level to lessen the catastrophic effects of climate change.
答案解析：
由题干中的关键词 a number of factors 和 driving down the global oil prices 定位到 D段 。D段明确提到 other factors are putting downward pressure on oil prices (其他因素正在给石油价格带来下行压力)，并列举了OPEC行为、伊朗出口、全球需求下降等多个因素。文末的 These likely persistent forces... point to a "low for long" scenario (这些可能持续存在的力量……指向“长期低价”的情景)与题干中的 not just for now but in the foreseeable future (不仅是现在，而且在可预见的未来)完美对应，所以选D。
由题干中的关键词 the most economical way 和 reduce greenhouse gas emissions 定位到 L段 。L段开头就指出 Economic reasoning shows that the least expensive way for each country is to put a price on carbon emissions (经济学推理表明，对每个国家而言，成本最低的方式就是对碳排放定价)。这里的 least expensive way (成本最低的方式)正是题干中 most economical way (最经济的方式)的同义替换，所以选L。
由题干中的关键词 estimated , extreme weather conditions , millions of African children 定位到 J段 。J段提到 the United Nations Children's Fund estimates that some 11 million children in Africa face hunger, disease, and water shortages as a result of the strongest El Nino weather phenomenon in decades (联合国儿童基金会估计，非洲约有1100万儿童因几十年来最强的厄尔尼诺天气现象而面临饥饿、疾病和缺水问题)。这里的 El Nino weather phenomenon (厄尔尼诺天气现象)就是 extreme weather conditions (极端天气条件)的具体例子，所以选J。
由题干中的关键词 prices of coal , over-supply , decreasing demand 定位到 E段 。E段末尾明确指出 Coal prices also are low, owing to over-supply and the scaling-down of demand (煤炭价格也很低，原因是供应过剩和需求缩减)。这里的 owing to (由于)对应题干中的 as a result of (作为……的结果)， scaling-down of demand (需求缩减)对应 decreasing demand (需求下降)，所以选E。
由题干中的关键词 Higher fossil fuel prices , innovation and application of cleaner technology 定位到 H段 。H段提到 There is strong evidence that both innovation and adoption of cleaner technology are strongly encouraged by higher fossil fuel prices (有强有力的证据表明，更高的化石燃料价格能极大地推动清洁技术的创新和应用)。这里的 are strongly encouraged by (受到……的极大推动)是题干中 prove to be conducive to (被证明是有利于)的同义替换，所以选H。
由题干中的关键词 fossil fuel prices remain low for a long time , higher emissions of greenhouse gases 定位到 A段 。A段开头就提出 low fossil fuel prices could discourage further innovation in, and adoption of, cleaner energy technologies. The result would be higher emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (低廉的化石燃料价格可能会阻碍清洁能源技术的进一步创新和应用，其结果将是更高的二氧化碳和其他温室气体排放)。这完整地解释了题干中的因果关系，所以选A。
由题干中的关键词 major source , primary energy consumption 定位到 G段 。G段明确指出 Renewables account for only a small share of global primary energy consumption, which is still dominated by fossil fuels (可再生能源在全球一次能源消费中只占很小的份额，而化石燃料仍占主导地位)。这里的 is still dominated by (仍由……主导)正是 remain the major source (仍然是主要来源)的同义替换，所以选G。
由题干中的关键词 major fossil exporting countries , great potential to develop renewable energies 定位到 F段 。F段提到 Even Africa and the Middle East, home to economies that are heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports, have enormous potential to develop renewables (即使是非洲和中东——这些经济体的经济严重依赖化石燃料出口的地区——也拥有发展可再生能源的巨大潜力)。这里的 home to economies that are heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports (严重依赖化石燃料出口的经济体的所在地)就是 major fossil exporting countries (主要化石燃料出口国)的另一种说法，所以选F。
由题干中的关键词 not properly dealt with , endless risks for mankind 定位到 O段 。O段末尾警告道 Failure to address comprehensively the problem of greenhouse gas emissions, however, exposes all generations, present and future, to incalculable risks (然而，如果不能全面解决温室气体排放问题，就会使当代和子孙后代面临无法计算的风险)。这里的 Failure to address comprehensively (未能全面解决)对应 if not properly dealt with (如果处理不当)， incalculable risks (无法计算的风险)对应 endless risks (无尽的风险)，所以选O。
由题干中的关键词 urgent , increase the cost of using fossil fuels , lessen the catastrophic effects of climate change 定位到 B段 。B段开头就呼吁 Policymakers should not allow low energy prices to derail the clean energy transition. Action to restore appropriate price incentives... is urgently needed to lower the risk of irreversible and potentially devastating effects of climate change (政策制定者不应让低能源价格阻碍清洁能源转型。迫切需要采取行动，恢复适当的价格激励……以降低气候变化带来不可逆转和潜在破坏性影响的风险)。这里的 restore appropriate price incentives (恢复适当的价格激励)就是 increase the cost... to an appropriate level (将成本提高到适当水平)的官方说法， urgently needed (迫切需要)对应 It is urgent (……是紧急的)， devastating effects (破坏性影响)对应 catastrophic effects (灾难性影响)，所以选B。
